关键外卖:
- 2013年首次推出, 存’s 系统性风险晴雨表调查 tracks risks that may impact the safety, 全球金融体系的韧性和稳定性.
- 地缘政治风险，通货膨胀，美国.S. 政治不确定性和网络风险是最大的威胁 2024年预测的四大威胁.
- 在年中, industry experts weigh-in and assess how these predictions have mapped to actual developments so far.
在2023年底，存发布了其年度业绩 系统性风险晴雨表调查, which asks risk experts from across the financial services industry to identify what they see as the top threats for the coming year.
好消息是? The experts surveyed turned out to be fairly accurate in predicting the greatest risks in 2024. 坏消息是? The experts surveyed turned out to be fairly accurate in predicting the greatest risks in 2024.
相关:人工智能如何改变网络威胁格局
Survey respondents identified the top four threats to the financial services industry in 2024 as geopolitical risk, 通货膨胀, U.S. 政治不确定性/ 2024年美国大选.S. 总统选举和网络风险.
“While the financial markets have remained resilient to the risks identified in the survey, there remains a systemic risk concern that could arise out a combination of high
通货膨胀和能源价格受到冲击等经济下滑, 地缘政治事件或大规模网络事件,” 蒂姆周二， 存董事总经理兼集团首席风险官. 但有些情况恶化了.”
驾驭全球不确定性
The 2024 barometer listed geopolitical risk as number one for the second year in a row, with 81% of respondents naming it the greatest threat – up from 68% the prior year.
库迪希说:“自调查以来，这种情况只会加剧。. “The war in Ukraine has worsened, and now we have an escalated conflict in Gaza.”
But open conflict is not the only way geopolitical risk can manifest and affect the market.
“Aside from war, de-dollarization is clearly a goal our adversaries would like to facilitate,” 罗伯特•埃克森他是河滨管理集团的董事总经理. “如果你不需要美元，制裁就不会很有效, and there are many actors who would go to great lengths to find some way to not be subject to U.S. 政府的政策. 到了紧要关头, 美元的流动性占上风, but if you look at history you can see the dollar rose to prominence after the Pound Sterling fell from its perch following World War I. 这可能发生在美元身上.”
通货膨胀排在第二位, 55%的受访者认为这是今年最大的风险, 比去年的61%略有下降.
“我绝对认为通货膨胀是目前最大的问题，”他说 詹姆斯Tabacchi总统 & 南街证券首席执行官. “而且，地缘政治风险可能会加剧通胀. We may see further supply chain constraints and restrictions on trade. (U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome) Powell is walking a tight rope trying to control 通货膨胀, 但我认为通货膨胀持续的时间越长, 风险越大. No matter how good you are, you can’t keep walking a tight rope for long.”
紧随通货膨胀之后的是美国.S. 政治不确定性/ 2024年美国大选.S. 总统选举, 51%的受访者将其列为头号威胁, 这一比例较前一年的21%大幅上升.
“There are usually patterns we can easily discern in the four-year 总统选举 cycles,阿克森说. “但这只真的是独一无二的. There is tremendous anxiety about the upcoming election, and it’s only going to get worse.”
不断演变的网络风险持续存在
网络风险紧随其后.S. 政治不确定性，50%的人将其列为头号威胁. It is notable that respondents have identified cyber risk as among the top five threats every year since the survey started in 2013.
“勒索软件是新的杰西·詹姆斯，”艾克森说. “He just doesn’t have a six-shooter, but these guys are essentially digital bank robbers. These security risks are not going away, and in fact, they are probably getting worse.”
Even in 2023, we saw an uptick in market disruption from cyberattacks. 第一个, financial services software provider ION was hit by a ransomware attack that lasted over a week, 黑客组织LockBit声称对此负责.
ION是一家总部位于都柏林的非上市公司, offering data and other services to financial industry clients who use that technology to facilitate trading and settlement of exchange-traded derivatives. The attack halted these processes for ION clients, leaving some unable to complete trades.
“Being knocked offline for a week created quite a bit of market disruption,” 将Acworth, 出版部高级副总裁, Data, 期货行业vnsr威尼斯城官网登入(FIA). “ION可能不是市场上的大玩家, 但它的许多客户都是这样, 不能完成交易产生了很多问题.”
的确, 新闻媒体报道 that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) delayed publishing weekly trading statistics because some ION customers were not able to collate information fast enough to compile daily positioning reports.
2023年11月，同一个黑客组织 据报道了 工业 & 中国商业银行美国分行.S.的经纪自营商. 工行是全球资产规模最大的银行.
In the wake of these and numerous other attacks, in February of 2024 the U.S. 国务院提议 奖金高达1500万美元 for information leading to the identification or location of LockBit members. 随后在2024年5月初，一名 宣布制裁 锁定了LockBit勒索软件组织的主要头目.
The recent boom in availability of AI tools has greatly magnifies the cyber risk – going beyond threat actors using it to commit fraud.
“AI-driven fraud using tools such as deepfakes can have real implications for the financial industry,” 画Propson, Head, Technology and Innovation in Financial 服务 at the World Economic Forum. “信任在vnsr威尼斯城官网登入领域非常重要. 如果人们对他们的金融机构失去信任, 我们可能会看到他们走出主流, 监管良好的金融业. 我们不希望看到人们离开我们的马厩, 老牌金融机构, 但缺乏信任会造成这种情况.”
评估影响
好消息是, 然而, is that the wider market probably also forecasted the same risks our survey respondents saw and may have baked those into expectations.
“The potential for systemic risks requires increased stakeholder engagement in managing risks and achieving shared outcomes. 关键的行业举措，如减少股权结算周期, 扩大使用美国国债结算, and advancing digital asset development all require collaboration and coordination among stakeholders to deliver measured risk mitigation and purpose-driven outcomes,库迪希说.
的确, even though some predictions turned out to be even worse than expected, those worse-than-expected developments did not always impact the markets. The survey was conducted before the October 7 Hamas attack that kicked off months of conflict in Gaza, 蔓延到伊朗和以色列之间的直接冲突.
“Most people would assume that if there is conflict in the Middle East, 石油价格将飞涨,阿克沃思说。. “这并没有发生. 石油价格保持了相当的稳定.”
的确, West Texas Intermediate Crude oil prices have risen only slightly in 2024, 从1月份的每桶72美元左右跌至5月份的76美元左右.
U.S. political uncertainty may also not turn out to be as big a risk as expected.
“我们研究了过去的总统选举，”普罗普森说. “We found they generally do not have as big an impact as people expect.”
Inflation may also not be impacting markets as much as respondents expected.
“通货膨胀一直持续，”库迪希说. “它并没有像许多人预期的那样得到改善, 这将影响此前对6月降息的预期, 市场现在预计，这种情况可能要到2024年晚些时候才会发生.”
尽管有通胀预测, 道琼斯工业平均指数从37点左右攀升,从1月份的000人到刚刚超过40人,000.
而受访者则给出了一些非常有先见之明的预测, it appears the negative impact of those predictions may not be as severe as some expected.